Sixth Anniversary of the Orange Tory

Tomorrow marks the sixth anniversary of this blog. It has been a long, fun and at times difficult project. I cannot count the number of times I have stared a the screen and the blinking cursor and have no idea what I'm going to write about. Before I go forward I want to thank my regular readers for continuing to visit this blog. Over the last year I've heard more from your than previously. Thoughtful comments are always a tremendous boost. Sometimes blogging can feel like yelling into the void and its nice to know someone is listening, even if they disagree.

Readership of the blog peaked in July 2015. For reasons beyond my understanding readership suddenly surged that summer and then immediately declined. It has been climbing again since January but I have long learned that building a readership is not a linear process. My recent post, Small Business and the Suburbs, is now my fifth most read post, so who knows? I obviously do not write to get a bigger and bigger audience, I write about the things that interest me and hope others enjoy it as well.

I thought the book reviews were a good addition to the blog. Sadly as I look at my reading list there is not a lot that will go on to the blog with one exception. I am nearly done The Big Shift by John Ibbitson and Darrel Bricker and a review should appear later this month. If you are interested in non-political book reviews I am posting my books on Goodreads. I am trying to read 50 books in 2016. I am watching some political fiction and think a review for some of that will be forthcoming as well.

Over the next year there are a couple of stories I assume I will be writing about more often than not. First is the NDP and Conservative leadership races. The outcome of these contests will shape our national politics for at least the next three years and easily longer. As I have written both are off to slow starts but they are long affairs. I hope to do more writing about urban issues perhaps using Brampton as a case study since that is my current home and hometown. To the process and outcome of the electoral reform committee is close to my heart and I have been following closely (with much trepidation). Over the next five months the American people will be holding their elections. I don't pay as much attention to the United States as I once did but this will be an important campaign to watch for sure. Especially given all the immigration applications we might soon be receiving.

Ultimately this blog is about ideas. It's about expressing opinions and collecting thoughts in one place. When I started writing I thought of it almost as a way of getting my personal philosophy down on paper (so to speak). It has helped refine my ideas and try to stake out my own bizarre place on the political spectrum. It may have also permanently doomed any dream I might have for public office (or general employment). From feedback I have received I know people appreciate the "Orange Tory" approach on issues, progressive/liberal/socialist on some issues and libertarian/conservative on others and just as often simply moderate. Thanks again to readers, new and old. Please continue to comment or reach out on social media, I'm @SLee_OT on Twitter, and I hope this blog continues to be a project worth sharing in its sixth year.

Quick Thoughts: Are we in a housing bubble?

Off the top I will admit that I remembered last night and late tonight that it was Tuesday and hence blog day. My day disappeared into a couple of projects, errands and work and the next thing I know I have less than three hours to post something interesting.

I did not have time to have anything properly prepped (last said by me, red faced, to a high school teacher). Instead I thought I would write down something that has been on my mind for weeks/months but haven't found the time to write out properly. I may revisit this with a proper post later.

I live in the Greater Toronto Area. I live with my family and we have lived in the same house my entire life. Every year prices have crept up and up and pushed potential buyers further afield. I am of the right age that a few of my friends have bought their first or second homes. More than a few have been pushed further into the Toronto commutershed, or deeper into suburbia to find homes they can afford. It's the 'drive until you qualify' formulation writ large.

This philosophy seems like a poorly disguised trap to me. Living further away from your work and essentials drives up costs, hidden in gas bills, second/third cars, insurance, and most importantly - time. It also has this daunting ripple effect. People cannot afford to live in inner Toronto so move to the inner suburbs, the inner suburbs prices people out and they live in the core 905, and out and out they go. Now my neighbourhood of simple 1960s suburban homes prices at ~$500000 when they cost a fifth as much 20 years ago. It seems to me the people living in these houses couldn't buy them today if they were forced into the market with no equity.

Watching a film like The Big Short has me wondering if the Canadian housing market found the perfect amount of heat to keep prices and investment flowing in the industry but not clearly manifest as a bubble. Prices, as near as I can tell, have not gone down in years and years. No one putting their house on the market today expects to lose money.

There are other troubling symptoms, but the excess isn't here to suggest the kind of runaway freight train that happened in the U.S. Still, I am worried, and the pace may be deceiving us. How sustainable is this ever climbing ride? Is a plunge on the horizon? And if it is, does the longer the wait mean worse outcomes for us all?

Failures of Leadership and Stagnation in Ontario

This afternoon I was reading on the Toronto Star website trying to get ideas on what I might want to write about for today. I think it is fair to say that I have been feeling disappointed in politics over the last few months. Since the federal election there has been little to be too excited about from my point of view. While I lean more towards the policy and ideas side of politics I still want to be inspired and like my political leaders, and I feel a distinct absence of that.

I've spent nearly all of my life in the province of Ontario. It is my home, it a place I love, but at the same time if feels more and more like a place that is failing. I think it is more than fair to say that the provincial political system is broken. The Toronto Star recently reported on what can only be seen as corruption, or dangerous blurring between politicians and big donors. Cabinet ministers in Ontario's government have been given fundraising targets and must appeal to big corporate donors in areas they are responsible for to achieve their goals. This stinks. The Liberals held a fundraiser and raised $3 million in one night. I am naturally very suspicious of money in politics, I think it has a corrupting influence and distorts the principles of our system.

Premier Kathleen Wynne (OLP - Don Valley West) had promise in my eyes when she was elected. A left-of-centre Liberal, I thought she had the approach to clean up the McGuinty years and change Queen's Park for the better. The longer her term in office goes it seems like the rot may be going even deeper. Billions of dollars are added to the deficit and Ontarians have little to show for it. Indeed, our public services remain strong, but infrastructure investment continues to lack behind.

The alternatives offer little hope in my eyes. Patrick Brown, the new Progressive Conservative leader comes from a more right-wing section of the Conservative Party. He speaks like a moderate and has made gestures towards the middle, but I have to wonder if the young leader promises anything else other than budget cuts, fee increases and public strife were he elected. Does he offer any meaningful change to reform the problems in Queen's Park? I have my doubts.

I am a New Democrat, with the membership card and everything, yet I have been left very cold by Andrea Horwath's (ONDP - Hamilton Centre) leadership. The zag to the populist right in the 2014 election campaign and the NDP strategy during the minority years did not greatly inspire me. Nor for a bunch of internal party reasons am I particularly enamoured with the central leadership at this time. Nor do I  see the NDP making clear policy choices to fix the problems in this province.

I'm sure this is clearer to Ontarians elsewhere, but it feels more and more that this province is stuck in the muck. The old industrial economy has essentially vanished and nothing has really filled its place. If it wasn't for the public sector and the Toronto economic engine I wonder if the place wouldn't have already fallen off the proverbial cliff. How much of our economy is being driven by a housing bubble, which while creating jobs gobbles up farm land and puts housing out of reach of the poor and the young?

Sometimes this is when looking to mayors would offer more hope. I didn't vote for my current mayor and I was unsure of her. I remain mixed on Brampton mayor Linda Jeffrey, I have real questions about her policy directions, but mostly it is the rest of council's positions on transparency, city management, development and transit that has me grinding my teeth. In an odd way John Tory might be the Ontario politician I have the most faith in, but it isn't motivated by any excitement, more of a basic competence. Even that opinion is given pause when I consider issues like Smart Track and the Scarborough Subway.

In a recent conversation with a friend I launched into a tirade about the status quo. There are so many things wrong in Canada, Ontario, and the GTA that are perpetuated mostly by a fear of change and acceptance of the status quo. Things could be so much better. The lack of inspiration I feel about our current political class may reflect more of my own cynicism than their actual capabilities. Given the sea change on the federal scene perhaps there are some MPs out there who could make a difference. I'd like to be proven wrong. Who is out there to believe in?

A Vision for the GTA's Future?

A vision for our future seems impressively lacking from our political class. This week I was wondering what Ontario, and more specifically, the Greater Toronto-Hamilton Area will look like by the close of the century. Presently the GTA is estimated to grow from its current 6 million residents to 9.4 million by 2041, according to the Ontario Ministry of Finance. I find it difficult to imagine what the GTHA will look like by that time. While the province has introduced policies such as the Green Belt to encourage intensification it has utterly failed to halt suburban sprawl.

In the case of Brampton the current goal is to grow all the way out to our boundaries and completely fill the city with low-density housing when increasing evidence suggests that it is a fiscally and environmentally unsustainable form of development. Ontario and its cities are beggaring themselves in pursuit of an old and tired idea of urban development.

Municipalities still seek exemptions and encourage more suburban tract housing despite the province's (weak) intentions to curb them. If the province is serious about improving the urban form of the GTHA and preparing for the future then it should create more stringent rules about zoning and planning for cities to follow. These rules need not be draconian. Incentives should be examined to encourage apartment construction and the removal of barriers for intensification. Even in urban Toronto planning rules are impeding the development of mid-level buildings (4-10 storeys).

There is a catch-22 though. Increased density and urbanization would aid in transit development, but transit development would also aid in increasing densities and urbanization. Large sums are spent to support transit in suburban locales whose urban form makes it more expensive than it need be. Intensification would dramatically increase transit use and its overall viability.

This leaves aside the massive technological and social changes we are likely to see. Many of them, of course, are impossible to predict, but it should be obvious that soon we will be living in a world of self-driving cars. However, it also seems evident that automation and smarter machines/computers are posed to devastate the current labour economy. 

Our political system is designed to deal with problems as they come and meet us and not particularly well-suited to create grandioise visions for the future. I am not suggesting our leaders need to present a grand vision. Instead they need to put some policies in place that will actually ensure a better future and not simply impose the past on us over and over again until it becomes untenable. It is an intriguing intellectual exercise to imagine what one's home might be like a century into the future. It brings into sharp focus the trends one may want to stop and the progress one might want to see continue. 

Endorsements - Brampton 2014 Municipal Election

This is perhaps the most interesting set of municipal elections in Ontario in quite some time. On October 27^th voters across the province will be electing their local officials. While the mayoralty race in Toronto has garnered the most attention there are contentious elections in Mississauga, Brampton, Hamilton, London and Sudbury. My hometown, Brampton, has a significant number of open seats as a large number of councillors retired this year as well the controversial mayor of Brampton faces serious challengers. Some people back home have asked for some help picking out candidates so here are my suggestions for Brampton’s elections. There are a huge number of candidates running so making an informed decision is challenging. I would appreciate any feedback and wish all the citizens of Brampton good luck in making their choices.

I did not do school board endorsements because finding information for those races is very challenging.

Mayor

While Mayor Susan Fennell protests her innocence and threatens lawsuits to her critics it seems clear that her time and office will and should end. Even before the spending scandals began I was no fan of Mayor Fennell. Her leadership style and position on issues has been troubling for me. Brampton has severely lacked in leadership to manage the transformation from a sleepy suburb to an urban community. Leadership has been far too reactive and not enough proactive to meet challenges the city faces. Fennell faces two realistic opponents, current regional councillor John Sanderson and former Liberal MPP for Brampton-Springdale Linda Jeffrey. Polling suggests Jeffrey is in the lead. To be honest I am not entirely satisfied with either Sanderson or Jeffrey. Both candidates are still appealing to the auto-oriented development style that can no longer help Brampton. Both discuss highway and road expansion/widening. The Hurontario LRT is one of the most important issues to my mind and both are non-committal or critical of the current route.

Reading the platforms it seems to me that Jeffrey offers vague promises that rely to a large degree on action by the provincial government.  Sanderson offers greater detail within the scope of a municipal mandate and a far more detailed platform. Sanderson has been pushing for greater accountability in city hall and his experience as a member of council should serve him well as mayor of the city. For me, John Sanderson is the best choice for Brampton’s next mayor.

City Council

Looking at the candidates for city council was more difficult than I had hoped. Far from Brampton I had to rely on the information I could find online. Many candidates seem to have no internet presence at all and a brief description on a webpage of Facebook page is hardly enough to base an informed decision. Given that some of the following should be considered under the caveat of incomplete information.

Wards 1 & 5

City Councillor Grant Gibson and Regional Councillor Elaine Moore are seeking re-election. I’ve met with Elaine Moore and think she is deserving of another term. I am less familiar with Mr. Gibson, but none of his opponents seem credible enough for me to recommend unseating the current city councillor. Given how many new councillors there will be in the next Council it will be valuable to have a few experienced hands.

Wards 2 & 6

An open race for the city council seat will mean a competitive election. Reviewing the available websites I was intrigued by Mr. Sukhminder Singh Hansra. I think he has some misguided policies, like increasing policing, but he actually addresses issues like poverty and affordable housing, which is depressingly rare. His experience as a journalist and long-time resident of the city makes him a strong candidate in my opinion.

For regional councillor John Hutton is seeking re-election for regional councillor. Mandeep Jassal looks like an interesting challenger for the incumbent. Jassal’s platform indicates that he is an urban progressive with interesting policy ideas. His support for a city-wide bike network and expansion of transit services and fair representation for Brampton makes a compelling case.

Wards 3 & 4

Bob Callahan is retiring this year which has led to a wide range of candidates seeking to replace him. More challenging to voters in Wards 3 & 4 is that John Sanderson is running for mayor making an opening for regional councillor too. 

Looking at the candidates putting their names forward in 3 & 4 for City Council Michael Freeman stands out to me. Given his experience and platform I think he has a reasonable, thoughtful vision for my home community. While I am not in favour of his proposal, Freeman has a detailed plan for the Hurontario LRT and how it can form the basis for a stronger transit system. Outside of the big picture policies he also has nice planks on important local issues, like modernizing Peel Village Park. I recommend checking out his platform positions. In addition I would like to recommend looking at Jeff Bowman, a businessman, community volunteer and life-long Bramptonian. Freeman and Bowman share a great deal in common in their platforms. I like what Mr. Bowman has to say about affordable housing and he has a novel notion for a re-routed Hurontario LRT to the new hospital complex. I think the biggest highlight to me is Mr. Bowman's reference to Brampton's "unbridled growth" and the employment issues and affordability of this approach. Jeff Bowman is passionate about his community, that much is clear, and is worthy of consideration. 

For regional council I would cast my ballot for Kevin Montgomery. Kevin is passionate advocate for re-examining transportation and urban design practices in Brampton. He also has platform planks on a wide array of important topics such as poverty and mental health. I think he would be a valuable voice at city hall and regional council.

Wards 7 & 8

For city council in Wards 7 & 8 I would like to throw my support behind Veenay Sehdev. Veenay might be the candidate I am most familiar with in this election. Full disclosure, a friend connected us so I could offer some advice on his campaign. I found Veenay passionate, intelligent and bold. He is also young, which would be a valuable voice compared to our last city council.

There was insufficient information for choosing a candidate for regional council. The incumbent Gael Mills was the only one with a website that I found. That being the case I am uncomfortable endorsing anyone.

Wards 9 & 10

The city council race is pretty narrow in Wards 9 and 10 compared to the others. Vicky Dhillon is the incumbent and he is seeking re-election. Of the candidates available I would lean towards voting for Gurpreet Dhillon, who was the recent ONDP candidate for Brampton-Springdale. Unsurprisingly I am in favour of more progressive voices at city hall.

For regional council John Sprovieri is seeking re-election. I have a tough time picking an endorsement for this race. I would encourage voters in these wards look at Michelle Shaw or Gurratan Singh. I like what Mr. Singh has to say, but his platform is not fully fleshed out, on the other hand Ms. Shaw has more platform planks, but lacks in details.

Overview

Brampton, hopefully, has reached an inflection point. The old-style of doing things has come to an end and if the city is to make progress moving forward it means changes in leadership. Brampton can’t think of itself as a sleepy suburb, it is a city of over a half-million people. Evidence and case studies around the world show us that sprawling suburban development is not the way to build successful, healthy cities. Brampton will look very different fifty years from now, but it will take time and thoughtful politicians and citizens to get us there. Hopefully the next city council can lead this transformation for a better Brampton.

A full list of candidates in Brampton can be found here. Best of luck to the candidates who put their names forward.

Reviving Ontario's Economy

Last week I discussed how NDP leader’s Tom Mulcair (NDP – Outremont, QC) remarks about the Dutch Disease and the effect of the energy economy on manufacturing across Canada had a ring of truth to it. However, my point was that Ontario’s decline, particularly in the field of manufacturing, has to do with much greater issues in Ontario’s competitiveness. Finally, in closing last week I suggested I might come up with some recommendations that may address this issue. Without further ado, here is a brief list of ideas that Ontario could put in place to improve its economic standing.

Idea #1 – Subsidies and band-aid solutions will not fix Ontario’s competitive gap

For some reason the first instinct of governments is to offer unsustainable incentives to compete with lower-cost jurisdictions. I have two responses to that; Ontario cannot pay to build an economy by bribing business, and the province trying to compete for low-cost sectors will not work. Ontario must build upon its innate strengths. It is important to note that these strengths and advantages vary in different regions of the province, but I’m speaking in more of a general sense.

Idea #2 – Make Ontario a more efficient place to do business

Ideas 2 and 3 will be related, so bear with me. A number of months ago I wrote a blog post about the desperate need for Toronto and the GTA to get its traffic problems under control. Every year Toronto loses $6 billion in productivity due to congestion. When you include the GTA and the rest of Ontario I have to assume that number starts creeping up to $10 billion, though I admittedly have no research to back that up. If congestion could be cut by even 1%, that is a savings of $6 million to Toronto businesses.

Taras Grescoe recently published a book called Straphanger: Saving Our Cities from Ourselves and from the Automobile. In it he argues Toronto used to lead the way, and can again if it rededicates itself to public transit. Premier Dalton McGuinty should increase the scope of Metrolinx (a provincial agency that oversees transit in the Greater Toronto-Hamilton Area) and start coordinating the municipalities’/regions’ transit systems to provide more effective transportation. Road and freeway improvements may also have to be part of the equation. An efficient transportation network will make the GTHA even more attractive for business and investment.

Idea #3 – Trade and Access to Markets

Trade is always going to be a deeply uncomfortable issue in Ontario. Many feel that NAFTA created a giant sucking sound as jobs fled Canada for overseas territories. The federal government is currently pursuing trade deals with various different jurisdictions. Ontario and her businesses should be positioning themselves to compete and take advantage of these opportunities. Likewise, Ontario should be putting forward a friendly face for foreign investment. This does not mean kowtowing, we need not bribe businesses to make smart investments. Ontario is the heart of Canada with a large market, and the world’s largest economy is at our doorsteps.

Part in parcel of this is expanding the province’s connectedness to the world. This could mean more effective rail and freeway links to the United States, or a second major airport in the GTA, and perhaps opening up our medium-sized cities more to international markets.

Idea #4 – The Right Kind of Workforce

Businesses that open in Ontario are tapping into some of the most educated labour pools in the world. But are post-secondary institutions equipping young people with the skills needed in our modern economy? Margaret Wente published a great article summarizing the issue, here. Currently we subsidize education roughly equally. What if instead we adjusted tuition to reflect market demand? Blanket policies are almost always weak policies. If a student studying sociology had to pay $500 per year more so an engineering student could pay $500 less, I think that is probably good policy. In addition, the highly demanded skilled trades should be subsidized to meet the needs of the economy.

I also think our provincial public education system (K-12) needs a major overhaul, but I do not have the space to comment here.

Idea #5 – Wrestling with the Bubble

The Globe and Mail has been doing quite impressive reporting over the last few months (and probably years) warning about the housing bubble that is developing in Toronto and elsewhere in Ontario. The construction boom and rising house prices may have exceeded the capacity of Ontarians to purchase them. The ridiculously low borrowing rate will come to an end and a number of people will default on their mortgages. Instead of remaining silent on this matter Ontario’s leaders (mayors, MPPs, councillors and provincial government) should begin to warn the public, consult the banking sector, and prepare for the possible fallout. If steps can be taken to minimize the deflation of this bubble, the must be taken.

Idea #6 - A Great Place to Live, a Great Place to Grow...

Ontari-ari-ari-o! Quality of life is important. I believe citizens, residents, government and civil societies in Ontario need to push to make this a more pleasant place to live. It will attract a better workforce, enhance economic opportunities and improve quality of life. I have talked previously about the notion of public art, but add in improving those cookie-cutter suburbs, and developing dismal areas and you can turn communities from places people live, to places people love.

I do not think my list above provides any panaceas, but it may offer a starting place. I also tried to propose ideas that a cash-strapped Ontario could manage. This list is by no means exclusive and much more could be added. I hope this gets the ball rolling.