The
best history I have read in recent years has got to be this book. The basic
premise of the book is fairly simple. MacMillan seeks to overturn the classic
question "what caused the start of the war?" and invert it to
"what caused the peace to end?" This subtle reframing does a great
deal to reshape the thinking about the world leading up to June 1914.
It
is important to recall that the First World War was in no way inevitable.
During MacMillan's thorough description of the events that transpired until the
irrevocable outbreak of hostilities there were many points in which the Great
Powers (or minor ones) could act to save the peace. What the author does so
well is provide the oppressive evidence that made peace a less and less
appealing option for various factions and countries around Europe.
Much
of the answers to what caused the end of the peace was sewn in the decades of
peace during the nineteenth century. The conservative Concert of Europe that
tried to manage affairs peaceably struggled to address the various changes and
political shifts that rocked Europe, whether that is the Industrial Revolution,
decay of the old empires, or nationalism's unpredictable currents.
I
think it is more than fair to say that MacMillan does not have a sympathetic
view of Kaiser Wilhelm II and lays a lot of the blame for the gradual slide
into war on him. The Germans were a disruptive force in Europe for its rapid
appearance and significant power. Overnight a great power, the strongest nation
in continent arguably, was born overnight. Only careful diplomacy prevented a
coalition, led by France, from forming to stop Germany.
Kaiser
Wilhelm II was not a diplomatic man, seemingly by every metric. The descriptions
of his desperate attempts to keep personal connection with the fellow royals of
Europe and his belief that strength would earn the respect, or demand the
respect of others in Europe certainly failed to avoid a conflict, and played a
part in causing it. Many countries still operated like their diplomacy could be
settled through interactions between the heads of state, ignoring economic,
political and social forces. This error would cause millions to die.
While
the century between 1815 and 1914 can be viewed as a mostly peaceful,
punctuated by uprisings, unifications and the Crimean War, this disguises some
of the forces working underneath the surface. The absence of major wars meant
that major issues were festering. The fact that war had been avoided so many
times actually made war more likely the longer it was postponed. For example,
Russia could not sit idly by again as a conflict touched off in the Balkans
without intervening if it was going to preserve its prestige and diplomatic initiative
to be the protector of Slavs.
Growing
tensions between major powers, but mostly Germany and France, Britain, and
Russia resulted in historic grievances being resolved and leading the doors
open to alliances and deeper cooperation. It's important to remember that for
most of the 19th century France and Russia were the British Empire's principle
rivals.
MacMillan's
exhaustive survey of the decades leading up to the First World War paints a
picture of leaders making small choices and each one slowly narrowing the
options available until war seems the only path. The text is beautifully
written and presents a fascinating picture of a wide swath of modern history. I
highly recommend this book to lovers of modern history, the First World War,
and diplomatic history.
I
think this book serves somewhat as a cautionary tale. The First World War is
often held up as an example of humanity must never fail again to preserve
peace. However, by 1914 it was too late in so many ways. Leaders must adopt a
long-term vision and collaborate to avoid the sort of devastation the war
unleashed, and small, reasonable decisions can have horrendous consequences
down the road.
