On Sunday August 2nd Prime Minister Stephen Harper
visited Governor General David Johnston and asked him to dissolve parliament
triggering the forty-second general election in Canadian history. For the next two months, until October 19th,
the country will be in an election period. For most Canadians this will impact
their lives very little, especially for the first 40 days or so. In recent
past elections have only lasted about 37 days, however after World War Two many
were 60+ days in length. So while this campaign is the longest one in Canada
since 1874 it is not particularly freakish in our history.
In this post I hope to lay some of the basic foundations
for citizens as we move into the campaign season.
Basics
There is not one election going on in Canada at the
moment. As a parliamentary democracy Canadians will elect 338 Members of
Parliament to form the 42nd House of Commons. The way the media and voters
often describe the election is through the selection of who they want to become
Prime Minister. This is a fair way of weighing one's vote, but it does not
actually fit with how our system works. If a party receives 170 seats they will
control a majority of the seats in the House of Commons and that leader will
become Prime Minister. Any outcome other than that is less clear, and will be
discussed at a later date.
During the election Stephen Harper (Conservative) remains the Prime
Minister, and his cabinet remained government ministers. However, by convention
their powers are curtailed. This is called the caretaker convention. No major
policy should be carried out during the campaign. The media will be watching
carefully for the government to abuse their powers. Impressively the government
released its caretaker convention to the public. Tom Mulcair, leader of the NDP and Leader of the Opposition will be fighting to unseat the current government and become the first federal NDP government in history. The Liberals under Justin Trudeau will attempt to restore their fortunes from third place and vault back into government.
Where the Parties Stand
When the House of Commons was dissolved there were 159
Conservatives (CPC), 95 New Democrats (NDP), 36 Liberals (LPC), 2 Bloc Quebecois (BQ), 2 Greens (GPC), 2
Strength in Democracy, 8 independents and 4 vacancies. Thirty seats were added
to help balance the population changes in the country. A significant number of
MPs have decided to retire heading into this election. Together this means that
incumbency will be much weaker in many seats than in previous elections. A
number of organizations have calculated the results if Canadians voted exactly the same in
the new boundaries. Not only were new seats added but others were adjusted to
help balance populations. These are the numbers I am using below.
Tip: Ignore the national polling numbers. They are an
average of Canadian opinions across the country, but voting trends are easier
to interpret at a regional/provincial level. For example, two polls could show
the Conservatives at 30%, but it include a 10% boost in Alberta and a 10%
decline in British Columbia hidden in the average. Despite a stable popular
support this would likely result in a drop of several seats for the
Conservatives. Where the votes are matter a great deal.
Atlantic Canada
CPC - 15, NDP - 6, LPC - 11
Atlantic Canada is normally a rock for the Liberal Party.
In July the Liberals were polling at ~40%, over 10 points higher than the
second place NDP. It's possible the Conservative Party could be routed from the
region, New Brunswick is the only province in which they have significant
strength. The NDP will be hoping to hold on to what they currently have in
Atlantic Canada, and possibly expand with a couple of additional seats in Nova
Scotia (South Shore-St. Margaret's, Central Nova, or Cumberland-Colchester),
one in New Brunswick. The Liberals play well in all ridings in this region and
are hoping to pick off NDP and Conservative seats in every province. They have
a particularly good shot in urban ridings in New Brunswick.
If the election seat counts are close all of these
Atlantic battlegrounds will matter. Even though Atlantic Canada has fewer seats
than Alberta they are all much more likely to flip.
Quebec
CPC - 5, NDP - 61, LPC - 8, BQ - 4
The major question after the 2011 election was whether or
not the Orange Wave that swept Quebec was permanent of a strange fluke. Polling
since the election would suggest that NDP are firmly in place as the favourite
party of Quebec voters. Though the 2011 election should remind us how quickly
things can change. The return of Gilles Duceppe as leader of the BQ might boost
their prospects. Both the Liberal and NDP leaders hail from Quebec, which
certainly wins them additional support. The NDP won 59 seats in 2011. For a
long while I assumed that this must represent a high-water mark and that in
2015 it would only be sensible to expect the number of seats to decline, even
if only slightly. However, it looks possible the NDP will hold on. The
Conservatives have two major areas they are hoping to play for. The area around
Quebec City tends to be more favourable to them and they are targeting Mont
Royal in Montreal. Mr. Harper is unlikely to do well in Quebec, but getting his
total into double digits would help secure his government a great deal. The
Liberals will focus their energies in Montreal trying to retake the seats lost
to them in 2011.
Ontario
CPC - 83, NDP - 24, LPC - 14
Ontario is the biggest prize in any federal election. It
has the most seats by a wide margin and offers a number of contests between the
parties. It is a bit silly to talk of the province as a whole because its own
internal regions behave differently. The Liberals used to own the whole
province of Ontario in the 1990s. The Conservative surge through rural and
suburban (and even urban) Ontario helped to secure their majority government.
If the Liberals hope to form government or the Conservatives hope to keep power
it will be decided here.
In the province's capital city the Tory incumbents will
try to hold on as many voters find their way back to the Liberal Party. Vote splitting, if the NDP rise again in
Toronto, may be the only thing that protects them. In downtown Toronto it will
be a knockdown, drag-out fight between the NDP and the Liberals. NDP candidates
have been aggressively campaigning there for weeks already. In the 905, suburbs
around Toronto, the fight will generally be between the Liberals and the
Conservatives. Winning these seats pushed the Harper Conservatives into
majority government. The NDP may be able to gain seats in Oshawa, Brampton, and around
Hamilton, but unless numbers swing dramatically it will mostly be a red-blue
fight in the 905. In the rest of the province the NDP have a strong shot at
gaining in the North and in Southwestern Ontario where its provincial cousins
have fared well. Rural seats should be safe for the Conservatives, but if the
Liberals start to go up many seats beyond the suburbs could start to flip.
Prairies
CPC - 22, NDP - 5, LPC - 1
It should hardly be surprising that the Conservatives do
well in the Prairies. This is their home turf and base (with Alberta). Both
opposition parties are polling up though and boundary changes in Saskatchewan
make it much friendlier to the NDP. Urban seats in Winnipeg, Saskatoon and
Regina will likely swap Conservatives for Liberals and New Democrats in this
election, unless Conservative popularity goes up. Currently the NDP have no
seats in Saskatchewan, but the 308 Blog by Eric Grenier is projecting as many
as six seats could go to them. Saskatchewan and Manitoba are real battlegrounds
in this election.
Alberta
CPC - 33, NDP - 1
Alberta probably isn't the province you think it is. The
recent election of a NDP provincial government should reaffirm that. The fact
that Edmonton and Calgary are led by progressive mayors should also shatter
some illusions people hold about that province. The opposition parties have
been growing in strength in Alberta. The redistribution of seats created some
more urban seats in Edmonton and Calgary that both the NDP and Liberals hope to
pick up. From their base in Edmonton-Strathcona the NDP hopes to push out into
other Edmonton seats. The NDP have the win in their sails in that province
coming off an amazing win. Most seats will remain firmly Conservative but the
cities will be places to watch.
British Columbia
CPC - 28, NDP - 11, LPC - 2, GPC - 1
BC might be the ultimate battleground province. The polls
often show a three-way race in the westernmost province. All parties have a
reasonable hope of picking up additional seats, including the Greens who will
be fighting to maintain Elizabeth May's seat and gain Victoria. The city of
Vancouver and the Lower Mainland of the province will see competitive races for
all the parties. If the NDP hope to form government they will have to perform
very well in British Columbia.
The North
With only three ridings it is difficult to generalize for
the North. Incumbency will help a great deal, but given the comparatively small
size of the electorate the swing of a few thousand votes can completely upend
the election. The Conservatives are aggressively seeking to take the Northwest
Territories riding from incumbent Dennis Bevington of the NDP, but
Conservatives have to watch out in Nunavut and Yukon as their own incumbents
fend off the Liberals, NDP and Greens. If the Liberals begin gaining momentum
they might sweep the North completely.
What's Next?
I was going to discuss possible outcomes but this post is
already long. Right now parties are scrambling to complete their nomination
process for candidates. Given that this election was foreseen for a long time
many ridings already have candidates. The Conservatives have nominated 294/338,
NDP 263/338, Liberals 303/338, Greens 172/338 and the Bloc 41/78. Since the
election isn't until October 19th there isn't quite the panic as if this was a
37-day campaign. My own riding's NDP association (which I am involved in) is
getting ready to host our meeting.
For voters I would recommend checking to see if you're
registered to vote in the election. After doing that you may want to find out your riding.
Other than that voters can afford to enjoy a little more of the summer before
the election takes shape. Keep reading here for more information!
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