Worth Reading - August 31, 2018

A video essayist named Contrapoints produced a fascinating examination of the Incel'community'. 

Jennifer Keesmaat, Toronto mayoral candidate, released her transit plan. 

Seven NDP MPs are not running in 2019, which may weaken the party going into the election. 

Strong Towns takes a look to see how fast American cities are actually changing. 

Eric Grenier writes about the possible impact of the Bernier-led right-wing party. 

Much hope is being pinned to retrofitting suburbia, but that path is not simple. 

Chuck Marohn writes about how grow can strangle and kill a community. 

Andrew Coyne looks at the disturbing turn the immigration debate in this country. 

Martin Regg Cohn looks at the Ontario government's hysteria over refugees. 

John Michael McGrath writes that to govern well the Tories in Ontario will have to admit that some problems don't have simple solutions. 

Paul Wells writes that the next federal election will be about the heart of Canada. 

The Bernier Party

First, I'd like to apologize for the missing posts over the last couple of weeks. During August I went on a brief trip to southwestern Ontario and then followed that up be a few days out of town at a wedding and some social functions at work. Long story short, it has made it so I've been both busy and disconnected from current events.

It was a bit of a shock when I learned the dispute between Maxime Bernier and Andrew Scheer within the Conservative Party of Canada ended with Bernier quitting the party and vowing to start his own as an alternative.

From reports this break-up was brewing for a long time. Bernier and Scheer had been quietly and not-so-quietly disagreeing in public. Earlier in the year he was removed from his critic portfolio. When Scheer reorganized the caucus he put Bernier in charge of developing policy, a bold move that seemed to endorse his more libertarian ideals. Clearly this was a consistent source of friction between the two men.

Bernier's exit from the party is a grave concern. Let it be remembered that Bernier lost to Scheer for the leadership of the party 49-51%. Bernier built a base of support within the party and across the country, as well as significant fundraising capacity. Now, to be fair, that does not necessarily translate into backing for his own alternative party, but no doubt a few will follow him.

Assuming Bernier is sincere in his promise to start a party the real question is the impact that will have on the 2019 federal election. There are already those who fear (or gleefully hope) that this may fracture the Conservative Party the way the Reform/Alliance split the right from the Progressive Conservatives from 1993-2003.

I think there are a few generally safe assumptions to make. First, with a little more than a year to go until the election it is unlikely that Bernier will get a full party off the ground to run the 338 candidates across the country. It seems a tall order. Second, I think it is likely that if Bernier sticks with it that it will result in him being re-elected in his riding under a new party banner. The question becomes how much of a tail, or how broad will his support be. Will the Bernier Party mirror Elizabeth May's Greens and simply elect the leader and no one else? Or, will it manifest into the seat of a truly national party and have competitive candidates and multiple MPs from across the country. Or, will it become a local phenomenon in Quebec?

I see a real possibility for Bernier's Party to perform better than the Greens, though I will not guarantee it. Bernier, from the leadership race, gained a lot of traction in Alberta. It is possible that his more libertarian vision may catch on in Alberta the same places that the Wildrose Party did.

Overall, I don't think this will much impact what I think will happen in October 2019. I tend to believe Canadians are inclined to give governments two terms. Even if Trudeau is less popular than he was, I think he is on track to win a second term. Weakness in the NDP's numbers secures the Liberals' left flank with the Tories united or divided.

Frankly, I am all for more parties with representation in the House of Commons. It's a sad truth that our electoral system penalizes that, but I think a greater diversity of voices should be welcome, even if I strongly disagree with Maxime Bernier's position. I'm sure it'll be interesting to see what happens next.

Worth Reading - August 16, 2018

Sorry I missed Tuesdays post, I was off taking a little break and didn't make arrangements to have post ready to go. Hopefully you all are enjoying your summers as well.

Josh Dehaas writes that Canadian universities need to diversify their sources of international students so they are less vulnerable to geopolitical changes. 

Jagmeet Singh has been touring Quebec to try to shore up NDP support in that province. 

Chantal Hebert argues that Canadians deserve an election this fall. 

Can outsiders with no stakes in a community really care enough to revive it properly? 

Steve Paikin writes that the first tears in the 'big blue tent' of the Ontario PCs have formed. 

Staffers at Queen's Park have been applauding to drown out troublesome questions from journalists. 

Worth Reading - August 9, 2019

Polls show that Francois Legault and the CAQ have the lead in the upcoming Quebec provincial election. 

Affordable housing in Toronto could be the top issue in the fall election. 

How a suburban county in Georgia squandered its wealth. 

Jagmeet Singh is running in a by-election in British Columbia, but he will not find it an easy experience. 

The piece in the Toronto Star advocates for a new freeway in the Western GTA. 

With criticism landing on Toronto's City Hall, the Star looks at what councillors do. 

The New York Times looks at research that shows how when a woman has children is shaped by their circumstances and reflects on different realities in America. 

Also from the Times, daughters are paid less for chores than sons. Huh. 

Buck-a-Beer is Terrible Policy, Great Politics

I'll be honest. It's late on Tuesday and because of the holiday Monday I forgot what day of the week it is, so this has to be written and delivered quickly.

When Doug Ford announced his 'policy' to bring cheaper beer to Ontario I don't know if I could have rolled by eyes harder. It was the exact sort of cheap pandering I had come to expect from the Progressive Conservative leader, but even still, when I first saw the message I thought it was a parody. What could be greater satire than Doug Ford promising cheap beer to win over voters?

To the shame of us all that was an actual commitment and one the government of Ontario has started to move towards making it a reality. The government will lower the minimum cost of a bottle or can of beer from $1.25 to $1. The price was raised ten years ago under Premier Dalton McGuinty. However, anyone capable of basic economics will probably point to the fact that this may not be as simple a fix as that. Prices have only gone up over the last ten years. Inflation and price structuring alone would mean that companies would be hesitant to lower their prices.

The government, ridiculously, is encouraging brewers to lower prices in order to win promotional opportunities at the government-owned LCBO.

Unsurprisingly, there has been significant outcry from brewers about this. Over recent decades small-scale and craft breweries have developed products to cater to a more diverse market. Quality costs money, and some brewers have clearly made the point that in order to meet the prices the Ford government wants, quality or quantity would have to be slashed. 

The truth is that the government of Ontario cannot really control the price of beer. Setting a new minimum will not necessarily encourage anyone to take advantage of it. I remember being a university student and drinking the buck-a-beers. They were awful, almost every one of them. The idea of general affordability is quite popular, no doubt, but whether or not that should be applied to alcohol. I would much prefer people to have cheaper transit or cheaper housing or cheaper food. The public good is much clearer there.

It's ridiculous policy, but it will no doubt be good politics.

Worth Reading - August 3, 2018

Most public engagement is worthless. 

A tale of two cities from Strong Towns, Asheville and Niagara. 

John Michael McGrath writes that Toronto's efforts to distance itself from Doug Ford is disingenuous. 

Doug Ford has created a 'public information service' while limiting questions from journalists. 

In sad nature news, an orca mother is desperately trying to keep her dead calf on the surface, hoping to revive it. 

As part of the fallout for the decision to reduce Toronto's city council the school board has two weeks to adjust its boundaries. 

Daniel Kitts lays out the biggest transit projects in the province of Ontario. 

 128 people are running for office in Brampton, here are their names. 

Former Mayor David Miller calls on the city to take the province to court over the council reduction.