The Bernier Party

First, I'd like to apologize for the missing posts over the last couple of weeks. During August I went on a brief trip to southwestern Ontario and then followed that up be a few days out of town at a wedding and some social functions at work. Long story short, it has made it so I've been both busy and disconnected from current events.

It was a bit of a shock when I learned the dispute between Maxime Bernier and Andrew Scheer within the Conservative Party of Canada ended with Bernier quitting the party and vowing to start his own as an alternative.

From reports this break-up was brewing for a long time. Bernier and Scheer had been quietly and not-so-quietly disagreeing in public. Earlier in the year he was removed from his critic portfolio. When Scheer reorganized the caucus he put Bernier in charge of developing policy, a bold move that seemed to endorse his more libertarian ideals. Clearly this was a consistent source of friction between the two men.

Bernier's exit from the party is a grave concern. Let it be remembered that Bernier lost to Scheer for the leadership of the party 49-51%. Bernier built a base of support within the party and across the country, as well as significant fundraising capacity. Now, to be fair, that does not necessarily translate into backing for his own alternative party, but no doubt a few will follow him.

Assuming Bernier is sincere in his promise to start a party the real question is the impact that will have on the 2019 federal election. There are already those who fear (or gleefully hope) that this may fracture the Conservative Party the way the Reform/Alliance split the right from the Progressive Conservatives from 1993-2003.

I think there are a few generally safe assumptions to make. First, with a little more than a year to go until the election it is unlikely that Bernier will get a full party off the ground to run the 338 candidates across the country. It seems a tall order. Second, I think it is likely that if Bernier sticks with it that it will result in him being re-elected in his riding under a new party banner. The question becomes how much of a tail, or how broad will his support be. Will the Bernier Party mirror Elizabeth May's Greens and simply elect the leader and no one else? Or, will it manifest into the seat of a truly national party and have competitive candidates and multiple MPs from across the country. Or, will it become a local phenomenon in Quebec?

I see a real possibility for Bernier's Party to perform better than the Greens, though I will not guarantee it. Bernier, from the leadership race, gained a lot of traction in Alberta. It is possible that his more libertarian vision may catch on in Alberta the same places that the Wildrose Party did.

Overall, I don't think this will much impact what I think will happen in October 2019. I tend to believe Canadians are inclined to give governments two terms. Even if Trudeau is less popular than he was, I think he is on track to win a second term. Weakness in the NDP's numbers secures the Liberals' left flank with the Tories united or divided.

Frankly, I am all for more parties with representation in the House of Commons. It's a sad truth that our electoral system penalizes that, but I think a greater diversity of voices should be welcome, even if I strongly disagree with Maxime Bernier's position. I'm sure it'll be interesting to see what happens next.