Wednesday, November 10, 2010

Prediction Results - 2010

So this week I want to reflect on how accurate my prediction was for the American midterm elections last Tuesday. I apologize for not posting last night, as usual, but I was delayed.

Of the Governors’ races I predicted 32 correctly. I got three wrong and two are yet to be determined. The three I called incorrectly were Illinois, Hawaii, and Rhode Island. These three states favour Democrats generally and elected Republicans or former-Republicans. I figured Illinois would favour the Republicans, and that since Kirk won the Senate seat there that he would pull along Brady to the Governor’s Mansion. The race in Hawaii received little polling and the state normally votes very strongly for the Dems. Rhode Island was in the middle of the three-way race. Linc Chaffee, a former-Republican Senator turned independent, managed to beat out the Democrat. The two races that are being recounted – Minnesota and Vermont – are favouring the Democrats, who I picked to win. So of 35 called races I got 32.

In the Senate there were 37 races. I predicted 33 races successfully, 3 unsuccessfully and 1, Alaska, has yet to be called. The three that I called incorrectly were Colorado, Nevada, and West Virginia. I predicted all 3 would go to the Republicans, but the Democrats managed to hang on/win. Colorado was very, very close, so I don’t feel so bad about that one. The polling for it was nuts. Two polls would come out the same day showing Ken Buck up 5% and another with Michael Bennett up 4%. It made no sense, but I figured Colorado would go Red. Oops.

Sharron Angle failed to gain a majority of support in Nevada. Harry Reid beat her 50-44 with approximately 5% casting their ballots for none of the above, or another candidate. I was deeply impressed with Harry Reid’s win, and I honestly did not think it was at all possible. I have heard from pundits that he won on the back of Hispanic voters. Frankly, I think he won by being the lesser evil of two despised candidates.

West Virginia was a bit of a gamble on my part. West Virginia never like President Obama, and I figured they would send a message by keeping their popular governor in Charleston and sending a Republican to Washington. Oops.

In addition in Alaska over 40% of the vote is Write-Ins, and Miller got 34%. I haven’t lost hope that Miller beat Murkowski yet, but if one in four Murkowski voters filled out their ballots incorrectly than that is game over for them. I’d rather Murkowski win overall, but Miller is who I put my money on.

If I may brag now, I got over 90% of my predictions correct, which I think is a pretty good prediction. The sad news now for election watchers is that it is time to start governing America again. Maybe.

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