Well reader, tomorrow is
the day. Across the country hundreds of campaigns are scrambling to complete
the last bit of work before millions of Canadians cast their ballots. If polls
are to be trusted (which they should not be) the election night will be a big
disappointment to my fellow New Democrats and we will likely be in a minority
parliament for the next couple of years. Many websites this time around have
presented models and projections for what the outcome will be for each seat. It
will be interesting to see how much egg ends up on their collective faces. I
will be spending election day working for my local NDP candidate after I cast
my ballot. Then I will be going through my long-standing tradition of watching
the results with a drink and some popcorn.
General Thoughts
I think this election will
be very tricky to predict on a seat-by-seat level. The strength of the NDP
coming into the election, the resilience of the Conservatives and the growth of
the Liberal and Bloc vote makes the likelihood of strange splits more likely.
My prediction is not based
on sophisticated polling or modeling. It reflects a synthesis of the
information I have looked at and my own gut instinct.
The North
I think it is fair to say
that the Conservatives face an uphill battle in the North. The question is
whether or not the splits will be severe enough to allow their election. At this
point I'd say the NDP will be returned in the Northwest Territories and the
Liberals have a good shot at picking up Yukon and Nunavut. They are likely to
be close though, so keep an eye on them. If the Liberals or NDP could bring
down Leona Aglukkaq in Nunavut it would be a big loss for the Tories.
Ridings to Watch: Nunavut
CPC - 0
LPC - 2
NDP - 1
GPC - 0
Atlantic Canada
The Conservatives seem
doomed in Atlantic Canada. Their changes to Employment Insurance has
disproportionately hurt this region. The opposition parties have both been
buoyed as the Conservatives have slipped. The Conservatives have almost no hope
to pick up new seats in Atlantic Canada, the question is how much they will
lose. In Newfoundland it will be a sea of red, five of the seven seats should
safely go Liberal. The NDP should be able to hold on to St. John's East, but it
will be a fight between them and the Liberals to hold on to St. John's
South-Mount Pearl.
The rise of the Liberals
in Nova Scotia has put a number of NDP seats at risk. Popular MP Meagan Leslie
could even lose her seat in Halifax, but I believe she'll hold on. The rest of
the province will probably go to the Liberals.
New Brunswick is the
Conservatives best hope in Atlantic Canada. They should hold on to three or
four seats in that province. The NDP should continue to hold Acadie-Bathurst.
More urban ridings in New Brunswick will be likely to flip to the Liberals such
as Fredericton, and Moncton-Riverview-Dieppe.
PEI should return to a
Liberal stronghold.
Ridings to Watch: St.
John's South-Mount Pearl, Halifax, Saint John-Rothesay, Miramichi-Grand Lake.
Atlantic Canada
CPC - 3
LPC - 20
NDP - 3
GPC - 0
Quebec
The biggest story of the
last election, the Orange Wave, is being challenged in Quebec. At the start of
the campaign it looked like the NDP might expand their advantage in the
province. However the race broke apart with Conservative, Liberal and Bloc
support growing. This is by far the hardest prediction/projection to make. With
four competitive parties it is possible to win with a very small number of
votes, comparatively speaking. I suspect that the Conservatives may enjoy a
significant advantage from these divides.
Ridings to Watch: Trois-Rivieres,
Saint-Maurice-Champlain, Quebec City, Marc-Aurele-Fortin, Louis-Herbert,
Laurentides-Labelle, Beauport-Limoilou.
CPC - 15
LPC - 24
NDP - 35
GPC - 0
BQ - 4
Ontario
If any party wins a
majority it will from a breakthrough in Ontario. There are three regions in
particular to look at in this election: Toronto, 905, and Southwestern Ontario.
Toronto should see the Conservative get rolled up by a Liberal wave. The
Liberal strength has put NDP seats in jeopardy in the downtown. The
Conservatives built their majority with seats in the 905. Both the Liberals and
NDP are poised to make gains against the Conservatives. Halton Region, Peel Region,
York Region and Durham Region are real battlegrounds. Southwestern Ontario is a
different beast. The NDP have been hopeful for years that their appeal could
work in Southwestern Ontario. With Conservative support slipping there are real
opportunities in places like Sarnia, Brantford and Essex.
Ridings to Watch: University-Rosedale,
Oshawa, Oakville, Kenora, Eglinton-Lawrence, Brantford-Brant Brampton East.
CPC - 45
LPC - 59
NDP - 17
GPC - 0
The Prairies
Support
in the Conservative heartland is waning which gives fresh opportunities to the
NDP and the Liberals. However, the deeply unpopular NDP government in Manitoba
is hurting that parties' chances. Therefore we're likely to see Liberal gains
in Manitoba and NDP gains in Saskatchewan. The new urban ridings in
Saskatchewan offer a real opportunity to the NDP to re-establish a presence in
that province.
Ridings
to Watch: Saskatoon-Grasswood, Regina-Lewvan, Elmwood-Transcona, Charleswood-St.
James-Assiniboia-Headingley, Churchill-Keewatinook Aski.
CPC - 16
LPC - 5
NDP - 6
GPC - 0
Alberta
The idea of solid Conservative
Alberta will likely take another beating on Monday night. With Conservative
support down and a larger number of urban ridings the Liberals and NDP are
ready to pick up seats in Alberta. Calgary and Edmonton are the most likely to
yield results, but the NDP has been targeting Lethbridge as a potential area
for pick-up.
Ridings to Watch:
Calgary Confederation, Edmonton
Centre, Edmonton Griesbach, Lethbridge, St. Albert-Edmonton
CPC - 28
LPC - 4
NDP - 2
GPC - 0
British Columbia
This province might give
the NDP the best news of the evening. BC has been more of a Conservative-NDP
battleground than anywhere else. If NDP strength holds out a lot of seats could
fall their way. The wildcard is Green support. The Greens early on showed a
great deal of popular support on Vancouver Island, at times enough to win a
second seat. The question is whether or not it will pan out.
Ridings to Watch: Burnaby
North-Seymour, Fleetwood-Port Kells, Pitt Meadows-Maple Ridge, Surrey Centre, Victoria.
CPC - 15
LPC - 10
NDP - 16
GPC - 1
Total/Overview
CPC - 122
LPC - 124
NDP - 80
GPC - 1
BQ - 4
My gut tells me the
Conservatives will win more seats than the models currently suggest, and
perhaps even the most seats after tomorrow night. The NDP will make gains in
parts of the country but their weakened position in Quebec will cause them to
lose ground overall in the House of Commons. This outcome is very uncertain though. It is possible
that the Conservatives may win the most seats with fewer votes than the
Liberals, or that the splits result in incredible surprises, much like what we
saw in 2011. Or, perhaps the Liberals have enough momentum to start their own
Red Wave and form a majority. We'll know the general shape of the result around
midnight Tuesday. Fingers crossed for no voting problems, everyone have a good
E-Day!
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