At the start of the election I highlighted five things to look for. I figure that is a good place to start from.
I initially predicted that turnout would go up. I became
pessimistic after speaking to family members and friends, but ultimately I was
proven right. Voter turnout improved to over 50% again. The approximately 52%
of the population who participated is refreshing, but should not be considered
the beginning of a new trend, in my opinion. Turnout is still below the 2007
election level. We’ll see what 2018 has to show.
The only swing involved with the Progressive
Conservatives was a universal rejection of the party. To my knowledge the
Conservative vote share declined in every single riding, even Tory strongholds.
Third, did the Liberal voters come home? The improvement
of the Liberal vote suggested that they did, at least in part. I feel that
might be reflected in the turnout improvement and slip in the Conservative
vote. It is difficult to say for reasons I will explore below.
The fourth question I raised was how would the ONDP vote
do in Brampton. The results in Brampton were frankly shocking to me. The ONDP
finished a strong second Brampton-Springdale, a virtual tie for second with the
PCs in Brampton West, and Jagmeet Singh was re-elected in Bramalea-Gore-Malton.
Given that Gurpreet Dhillon was intended for a by-election candidate it is
difficult to say that the ONDP could get a stronger one for the next time
around. However, Jagmeet Singh ran provincially after a narrow loss federally
in 2011. Perhaps history will repeat itself. It would be a strange twist of
fate if the red-blue seats of Brampton began flipping to orange.
The fifth point I made was about NDP support in
Southwestern Ontario. More impressive than the NDP growth in Brampton was their
surge of support in Southwestern Ontario. The party grabbed Windsor West from
the Liberals, held onto their surprising by-election victories in London West
and Kitchener-Waterloo and came very close in ridings like Sarnia-Lambton and
Chatham-Kent-Essex.
The election results are confusing. While there are
general trends certain seats stand out as strong outliers. The Liberal and
NDP vote exploded upwards in some ridings, but not in others. Likewise the
Conservatives ticked down somewhat in some and imploded entirely in others.
Take ridings like Cambridge and Durham. The Tories won those ridings quite
comfortably in 2011 but lost handily in this last election. Similarly the NDP
blew the Tories out of the water in Oshawa. In many ways it might be right to say the PCs lost this election, not that the Liberals won. Their decline in the vote opened up the opportunity for a Liberal majority.
Liberal support seemed anchored very firmly in the large
cities: Toronto, Mississauga, Ottawa, Brampton and the GTA more generally.
Their support spiked in those areas. The NDP did well in Brampton, Niagara,
Southwestern Ontario and the North. Alice Funke on her blog suggested that the change in fortunes may be a symbol that the NDP
have found ways to appeal to traditional Conservative voters in the
working-class depressed areas of the province and medium to small sized cities.
Liberals meanwhile are cleaning up in the affluent, relatively prosperous cities
and suburbs. The Conservatives are left with the rural belts around the cities.
The vote percentage does not tell the story of the
election. One must look at the results in the seats for trends and changes. It
is unlikely that the next election will look much like this one. The province
badly needs to redraw the riding boundaries. This may result in surprises.
Toronto ridings may become more difficult for the ONDP to retake, but may make
some in Brampton and southern Ontario more accessible. Redrawing will likely
hurt the PCs until they rebuild inroads to the 905 and 416.
It was an exciting election. Congratulations and my deep
respect to all the men and women who put their names forward. I’m sad I wasn’t
there to see it in person.
No comments:
Post a Comment