Tuesday, October 19, 2010

2010 U.S. Midterm Election Prediction

I can't resist making a prediction. The election will be going on in two weeks time, Tuesday November 2, 2010. Despite what I said a few months ago I did do predictions for the governor's races as well. I have no firm prediction about the outcome of the election in the House of Representatives. What I will predict is that the U.S. House of Representatives will be taken over by the Republican Party, I predict they will capture 45 seats, but that is gut instinct and not based on any science. I'll post in a couple weeks to see how well my prediction turned out, and discuss the results broadly.

Here is something... controversial in my U.S. Senate prediction. My current numbers show that the Senate will be split 50-50 between Democrats and Republicans. This will be a massive turning point in the American political narrative, and the Obama presidency. With no clear majority both parties will have to work hand-in-hand to get ANYTHING done. Given how politics has been shaped over the last two years I sincerely doubt that can happen. Senate Predictions are below.

As for the Governors? Well, it tends to be less nationally partisan, each state has its own distinct politics. But since the census has been conducted the states are going to redesign the congressional district boundaries, and given the tradition of gerrymandering (see a previous blog entry) who controls the governors' mansions will determine who may hold the U.S. House of Representatives in the coming 10 years. For the Governors I predict that by the end of Tuesday night there will be 30 states with Republican governors and 20 with Democratic governors. I predict that Republicans will win 24 of the 36 governor races.

Predictions are broken into Solid, Likely, Lean, Slight, and Toss Up. If there is no subcategory it's because no race matches that description from my estimation.

Senate Prediction

I've ranked the races by those most likely to be won by Republicans to those most likely to be won by Democrats.

Solid Republican

South Carolina - DeMint
Idaho - Crapo
North Dakota - Hoeven
Kansas - Moran
Oklahoma - Coburn
Arizona - McCain
Alabama - Shelby
Utah - Lee
South Dakota - Thune
Arkansas - Boozman
Iowa - Grassley
Indiana - Coats
Louisiana - Vitter
Georgia - Isakson
North Carolina - Burr

Likely Republican

Florida - Rubio
Ohio - Portman
Pennsylvania - Toomey
Missouri - Blunt

Lean Republican

Wisconsin - Johnson
New Hampshire - Ayotte
Kentucky - Paul
Colorado - Buck

Toss Up

Alaska - Miller - Republican
Nevada - Angle - Republican
Illinois - Kirk - Republican
West Virginia - Raese - Republican

Slight Democratic

California - Boxer
Washington - Murray

Likely Democratic

Connecticut - Blumenthal

Solid Democratic

Oregon - Wyden
New York - Gillibrand
Delaware - Coons
Vermont - Leahy
New York - Schumer
Maryland - Mikulski
Hawaii - Inouye

Governors Predictions

This follows the same format as the Senate above.

Solid Republican

Kansas - Brownback
Wyoming - Mead
Nebraska - Heineman
Utah - Herbert
South Dakota - Daugaard
Alabama - Bentley
Tennessee - Haslam
Oklahoma - Fallin
Alaska - Parnell
Iowa - Branstad
Idaho - Otter
Michigan - Snyder

Likely Republican

Arizona - Brewer
Texas - Perry
Nevada - Sandoval
Pennsylvania - Corbett
New Mexico - Martinez
South Carolina - Haley

Lean Republican

Georgia - Deal
Illinois - Brady
Wisconsin - Walker

Slight Republican

Maine - LePage
Ohio - Kasich

Toss Up

Florida - Scott - Republican
Oregon - Kitzhaber - Democratic

Slight Democratic

Hawaii - Abercrombie
Vermont - Shumlin

Lean Democratic

Connecticut - Malloy
Rhode Island - Caprio
Minnesota - Dayton
California - Brown
Massachusetts - Patrick
Colorado - Hickenlooper
Maryland - O'Malley
Arkansas - Beebe
New Hampshire - Lynch
New York - Cuomo

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