Reconsidering John Tory

In the 2014 Toronto mayoral election the people of Toronto were faced with a pretty start and alarming choice. After four years of chaotic mismanagement by the Rob Ford administration they were offered three practical options for who should become the next mayor: Olivia Chow, Doug Ford and John Tory.

Though voters don't collectively make a decision I think it is possible to look at the outcome and see some of the mood in the public. Chow came third. In public polling she never exceeded 30%. She in many ways represented the very justified anger on the left side of the spectrum at the Ford term. Decision after decision rankled and so many policy choices just plain seemed wrong. As Chow faded the race for mayor became more of a two-person race between Ford and Tory.

With Ford it was definitely an endorsement of the way things had gone in the first term. For right-wing residents of the city and especially those who wanted suburban, car-oriented, low tax government this promised more of the same. That said, one could easily argue about the low tax given the levy needed to fund the disastrous Scarborough subway.

However, I think a huge chunk of Toronto fell somewhere in the middle. I think it is a common misconception that Toronto is a left-wing city. I think certain areas are quite left-leaning, but the success the Progressive Conservatives, Conservatives and difficulties of the ONDP and NDP have had should be a lesson, as is the popularity of Rob Ford and the composition of Toronto City Council. John Tory came forward as a centrist option, though in truth centre-right would probably be more accurate. However, Tory offered something else for Torontonians - he's boring and safe.

Four years of Rob Ford I think turned many people's stomach. While there are those who will cheer the deceased mayor for decades to come it is also clear that he brought a deep sense of embarrassment for regular Torontonians who just wanted a quiet, well-functioning city government. I once observed that Canadians sometimes seem to hire (elect) prime ministers and premiers like they might hire an accountant. I think that's what allowed Stephen Harper to do well, in part.

Tory delivered for the most part. After being elected he has provided Toronto with stable and sober government. There have been no major scandals and he seems from the quiet business of city hall to be a competent administrator. However, this stability has come at the cost of an innate conservatism. By conservatism here I mean it quite literally - the desire to preserve things or keep them the same. This might not be a problem, except that Toronto is going through a period of intense change and requires leadership to guide it, shape it and make it happen.

There are a number of portfolios where Tory has stuck with the status quo despite public pressure and a great deal of evidence that change is required. I think the clearest example of this is on the question of policing and carding in the city of Toronto. Vocal critics such as Desmond Cole have made the case time and time again that the policing service requires reform and change especially in order to better serve people of colour. Tory has reflexively supported the police.

John Tory had a close relationship with Premier Kathleen Wynne. Politically the two seemed quite aligned, but also Wynne was interested in keeping Toronto happy on a number of fronts being a Toronto politician. However, as Ford moves into office I wonder if Tory merely wishes to get along with Queen's Park and the Premier and will not be a passionate defender of the city when it needs it against Doug Ford.

At the moment John Tory seems like he will return to office. He is polling 65% to 35% against his rival Jennifer Keesmaat. However, the vote is seven weeks away, and a lot can change. Tory has moved to the right for the sake of the campaign and this could harm him among the centrists who elected him in the first place. Keesmaat got off to a poor start, but she may be just the type of candidate to galvanize the centre and the left around a different more activist vision of Toronto. In 2014 Tory was the better of a bad choice, in 2018 he is going to have to do more than that.