Worth Reading - October 25, 2018

The NDP face challenging by-elections before the next federal election. 

The Ontario government cancelled funding for three university campuses after millions of dollars were spent. 

Why does conservative nonsense dominate American politics? 

After the election, Toronto City Council has as many people named Michael as it does visible minorities. 

A 32-year-old woman defeated the incumbent mayor in Peterborough. 

Patrick Brown says that Doug Ford has to take Brampton seriously, or he'll face real issues. 

Dear God Brampton, What the Hell Were You Thinking?

Last night about 35% of eligible voters in Brampton cast ballots and elected a new mayor, council and school board. Patrick Brown defeated incumbent mayor Linda Jeffrey by around four thousand votes. Patrick Brown, as thousands of Brampton voters seem to have forgotten, was a long-time resident of Barrie, served on its city council before becoming a Conservative MP. He then became leader of the Progressive Conservative Party of Ontario until credible allegations against him abusing his position of power to make advancements on young staffers became public known. He was unceremoniously kicked out as leader.

But fear not, Patrick Brown can continue to survive off the public purse because the citizens of Brampton, forty-six thousand of them had the bright idea to elect him as their mayor.

Sigh.

Nights like last night sometimes honestly make me feel like I should hang up the keyboard and quit. Too many defeats. Too many bad losses to awful candidates.

Trying to be positive, the victories of Paul Vicente, Martin Medeiros, Gurpreet Dhillon, Rowena Santos, Jeff Bowman, and Charmaine Williams are heartening.

However, the election of Doug Whillans, Pat Fortini, and Michael Palleschi does not fill me with hope.

I've left Harkirat Singh's name off either side because I don't know him well. I included Ms. Williams because she is the first black woman elected to city council, an important and growing community in this city that needs representation. It will be difficult to tell until some issues come up, but the council may be slightly more progressive than the last one. I thought some members were more progressive and then their voting record said otherwise.

Despite what some might say, I think it should be noted that by far not everyone forgives or forgets the allegations made against Patrick Brown. His election is not carte blanche forgiveness. Citizens in this city will be watching, and errors and mismanagement will be noted. Hopefully then the people will have the good sense to hold him accountable.

Now I'm going to try not think about this election for a while.

Worth Reading - October 18, 2018

Patrick Brown, who hopes to become mayor of Brampton next week, spent $300000 in two months on staffing in his final days as a MPP.  Respect for the public purse?

The Toronto Star endorses Linda Jeffrey for re-election as mayor of Brampton. 

New Brunswick's strange election outcome means that no party wants to volunteer a MLA to become speaker.

  

Now that Canada has legalized cannabis, the next move is to address harder drugs. 

This article looks at when public transit meets on-demand service. 

Francis Fukuyama sat down for an interview and shared some of his thoughts on the state of politics and the world. 

Here's a story on people who are moving to the Chernobyl radioactive zone. 

Strong Towns looks at how efficiency is not the same thing as strength. 

Why does John Tory want to be mayor? What is his vision for Toronto? 

Book Review: The Dictator's Handbook by Bruce Bueno de Mesquita and Alastair Smith

Every once in a while you're lucky enough to read something that changes the way you look at politics and the world in general. That is how I felt after finished The Dictator's Handbook. Written by political scientists the book is written for a general audience and provides clear examples and demonstrates the central thesis. De Mesquita and Smith seek to uncover the true incentives behind the actions of leaders. Their thesis has given them new insight and understanding of how leaders and governments behave.

The title of the book is a bit misleading. It is not about how to become a dictator, or something like that. The book is focused more on how do leaders gain power and hold power successfully. They argue that leaders in democratic countries, ruthless dictatorships, corporations or small towns are all operating under the same basic principles.

Leaders wish to obtain and maintain power. In any structure where a leader is selected, the authors write, there are the interchangeables, the influentials, and the essentials. The names for these three categories is perhaps the worst part of the book from my point of view. The interchangeables, or nominal selectorate, are the entire population that can choose the leaders. The influentials are the 'real' selectorate, or the group who actually chooses the leader. The essesntials are the group of the influentials who make up the winning coalition.

I know that was a lot to parse, so I'll use an example from Canada. In Canada every adult citizen has the right to vote. That is the interchangeables. However, we know for a fact that a lot of the population does not fall into the category. For example, a significant population of the country does not vote, so you lose about 30-40% right there. From there the leader cobbles together a coalition to win, those become the essentials. This coalition are the voters who elect Members of Parliament for the winning party. In the end only about 15-25% of the Canadian voting population has a role in selecting the Prime Minister. The PM then has the sole duty of keeping that coalition happy in order to maintain power.

America provides an easy example for the presidency. The electoral college is the true real selectorate for the president. He/she must the 270 electoral votes to assure victory. However, in most recent elections some states are absolutely guaranteed in their leanings and the outcome assured. As a result candidates for president can focus on the essentials in a handful of states. In an autocratic regime the selectorate may be the single legal party, like the Communist Party of China, or the support among the military and its key officers.

Once in power leaders have to find a way to reward their supporters to ensure their continued loyalty. Leaders who fail to do so risk encouraging new coalitions forming that will turf them from office. For this control of resources and redistribution is important. The authors have found direct correlation between the size of the coalitions required and the disparity of rewards. In a democracy benefits have to be distributed widely in the form of social programs or tax cuts, as an example. In a dictatorship, or small coalition country, leaders can steal - literally - from the population to reward their backers. This is how you get situations where some small, select minority loyal to the leader, such as his home tribe, becomes enormously enriched. The leader wins their absolute loyalty.

The authors investigate how this lens can interpret things like corruption, taxation and foreign aid. The come to an interesting conclusions and extrapolation, backed by case studies. Countries that have a plentiful resource, like oil, are at greater risk for shrinking the coalition of support. Taxes tend to be higher because regimes in small coalition countries can afford to squeeze their populations more. Foreign aid props up dictators and gives them and their supporters tools to enrich themselves. It's sort of stunning. When developing countries are forced to rely upon their populations to be productive they invest in them and the coalition grows.

The book is deeply cynical, one could argue, but there is an undeniable logic to it. We see these factors play out all the time in democracies as well as dictatorships. The actions of leaders can be explained by these central motivations. The books is well-written as well as dryly humourous. It was a deeply pleasurable read and has definitely given me a lot to think about, and explains why bad behaviour can often be good politics.

Worth Reading - October 11, 2018

Big long list. It's what happens when I miss a week.

Andrew Coyne takes a look at former PM Stephen Harper's new book. This one is not about hockey.

How small changes in an Arkansas town made a big difference. 

If we refuse to take climate change serious preventatively, we have a duty to prepare for the consequences. 

A right-wing candidate who has said positive things about dictatorship won the first round of the Brazilian election. 

John Michael McGrath looks at the state of the Liberal Parties across Canada and centricism. 

Toronto is facing a financial crisis, but no one is talking about it. 

The Montreal Gazette reports on the divisions in Quebec society revealed by the election. 

John Geddes writes on Stephen Harper's interpretation of conservative populism. 

Jen Gerson writes on the political utility of the carbon tax for conservative politicians in Canada. 

From the Globe and Mail, Sidewalk Toronto is no smart city. 

Toronto will be hamstrung by the provincial government no matter who wins. 

The Kavanaugh hearing proves what was widely known - there is no conservative resistance to Trump. 

Why did the 2018 Ontario election go the way that it did? 

Progressive Conservatives in Ontario refused to denounce a white nationalist. 

Quebec's election signals a new era. 

Is former Liberal MPP and Mayor of Brampton Linda Jeffrey getting a boost from Doug Ford? 

Why fascists never think they're fascists. 

Brampton Election 2018 - Endorsements and Thoughts

Later this month, on October 22nd, voters across Ontario will cast ballots to elect representatives as part of the local and regional governments. I want to spend a little time looking at the local races here in Brampton, and sharing my own feelings. The Brampton elections are more interesting than normal given that there are a number of openings on council and serious challenges to incumbents.

I cannot cover all the candidates here, but here is an article that at least lists all of them. 

The biggest election in Brampton is the contest for mayor. Linda Jeffrey is seeking re-election. Her tenure of mayor has been difficult. Early on Jeffrey got in a massive disagreement with members of council. A majority voted against her on the Hurontario LRT and since that time she seemed to have lost the council. She is running on a fairly modest platform to improve safety, keep taxes at the same rate, and be a good steward for the future.

Jeffrey's primary competition, as far as I can tell, is from Patrick Brown. I'm not going to pretend to be unbiased here, I think if Brampton elects Brown as mayor it'll be a humiliation for the city. Brown was running for Peel Regional Chair before the position's election was eliminated by Doug Ford. Brown was the former leader of the Progressive Conservatives until he was pushed out by scandal. He is from Barrie and a lifelong politician. His platform is fairly boilerplate, and so it becomes about personality, and I don't think Brown can be trusted.

Two other prominent candidates in the race are Baljit Gosal and John Sprovieri. Gosal is a former Conservative MP for Brampton. His prominence and name recognition makes him stand out, but I do not believe he has found much traction in the race. Similarly, Sprovieri has been a long-time councillor in Brampton. He was a vocal critic of Jeffrey, however he is seen by many to be out-of-touch and insensitive.

I'll be voting for Linda Jeffrey. I found I agreed with her more often than not in her term and her opponents either do not seem credible or are unacceptable to me.

One of the biggest races this time around will be in Wards 1 and 5. Brampton combines two wards for the purposes of elections. Grant Gibson and Elaine Moore are both retiring, creating vacancies and fierce competition. Eleven candidates are running for city council, and six for regional council. An interesting twist in this election is that Rowena Santos and Paul Vicente are running as 'a team'. Their signs are often on lawns together and I've seen them campaigning together. I have met with Santos and Vicente prior to the election at political events. I like the progressive agenda they are presenting.

In wards 2 and 6 the incumbents, Doug Whillans and Michael Paul Palleschi are seeking re-election. Given the benefits of incumbency I would expect both to be safely returned to office.

In wards 3 and 4, my area of town, the incumbents may both be facing stiff competition. City Councillor Jeff Bowman faces challenger Harpreet Singh Hansra, a local activist along with five other challengers. I've seen significant support for Hansra in the neighbourhood, so Bowman may be up for a fight. I think Bowman has been a good councillor, but I do not think I agree with him on the issues.

Despite my disagreements with some of Bowman's positions over the last few years I know that he is a thoughtful voice on issues. He was opposed to Jeffrey on key votes, but I trust he thought through his choices. Also, many of his challengers don't even have websites.

The more dramatic contest in 3 and 4 is between Regional Councillor Martin Medeiros and former Councillor John Sanderson. Sanderson ran against Jeffrey for mayor in 2014 and lost. In the four years since he has been a strong, outside critic of her mayoralty. Medeiros is a staunch supporter of Jeffrey on council, so the election has significant importance. Three other candidates are running but these two veterans seem to be dominating.

I voted for Sanderson for mayor in 2014, however, the aftermath of the campaign and his opposition to progressive transit and other policies bothered me. I'll be casting my ballot for Medeiros. I've dealt with him on a couple of issues that I've raised and he has been a strong local representative in that regard.

In wards 7 and 8 long-time councillor Gael Miles is retiring and the city councillor Pat Fortini is running for her spot on city council. So, Fortini is sort of the incumbent here. Fortini will have to overcome three other candidates to become replace Miles. One of the candidates is Bruce Marshall. I've met Bruce on a number of occasions and have found him to be a thoughtful, direct man. If I lived in wards 7 and 8 I would be voting for him.

The city council spot vacated by Fortini has nine challengers. One, interestingly enough is Martin Singh, former NDP candidate in 2015. Karla Bailey, if I'm not mistaken, has run before, and I like the experience in the community she brings to the table.

Last, but not least, wards 9 and 10. Sprovieri's run for mayor creates an opening and city councillor Gurpreet Dhillon took the opportunity to challenge for his former seat. I've really appreciated what Dhillon has brought to Brampton's City Hall. I without reservation would endorse him to become the regional councillor. He will have to overcome Vicky Dhillon, who lost to Gurpreet in 2014.

For the city council spot the current Peel District School Board trustee is running, Harkirat Singh. The rest are relative unknowns, so Singh has an advantage there.

I unfortunately cannot do the school board races. It's just too much to sift through and this post is long enough. I want to comment that overall I have been disappointed by the issues-content of this election. Aside from a recent series of crimes that has made policing and safety the top priority few other topics seem to be on the table. Many candidates are running on a soft "keep taxes low, bring in business, make small investments" platform. It is not particularly inspiring. Few are offering any sort of bold vision, and those who stretch seem to be missing touch with reality.

Best of luck, voters of Brampton, make good choices for the coming vote!